Extended Primary Good for GOP? Don't Bet on It

There are a lot of Republicans including, according to ABC
News, Karl Rove, who think that a drawn-out primary will benefit their party in
this election cycle the way a similar process aided Democrats in 2008. Don’t
bet ten thousand dollars on it.

In fact, there is little substantive similarity between the
two situations. First, consider the optics. The Democratic battle of 2008
featured a mesmerizing African-American politician and one of the most
recognized women in the world. No matter the result, it was destined to be
historic. For the first time, a major American political party would nominate for
president someone other than a white male. By contrast, when the Republican
contest shakes out, its remaining candidates will likely be three white men
whose average age is a whisker short of seventy. A long primary will cement in
people’s minds the idea of the Republicans as the white patrician party. While
that may play well with white patricians, it is guaranteed to give pause to
other parts of the electorate—and it certainly provides nothing to ignite the
imagination.

And then there is the substance. Although
candidates Obama and Clinton certainly had their disagreements (remember the
three in the morning phone call?), they
more often found themselves in lockstep on everything from universal
health care to ending the war in Iraq to preserving Social Security. Since these issues were popular with the
American people, the long contest reminded voters how much they actually agreed
with Democratic positions. Consider, by contrast, how the electorate views the major
Republican views in this election cycle. All of the Republicans running reject any
tax hike on the rich, while according to a recent Bloomberg poll more than half
of all Americans think the wealthy should pay more taxes to help bring down the
deficit. The Ryan plan, which would turn Medicare into a voucher system, is
sure to get more exposure the longer the Republican contest continues. But a
Quinnipiac poll this May showed sixty percent opposed to changing Medicare into
a voucher system. And according to a Fox News poll, sixty-six percent of
Americans think there should be a path for illegal immigrants to citizenship,
while Newt Gingrich gets booed for suggesting someone who has lived here illegally
for a quarter of a century might be allowed to stay. The longer the primary
contest, the more people will wake up to just how out of step the Republican Party’s
positions are with the views of the majority of Americans.

Finally, let’s not forget the
audience participation feature of this year’s debates, as GOP crowds did everything
from boo gay soldiers to cheer on executions to applaud the prospect of denying
the uninsured life-saving treatment. Is there any doubt that an extended
primary contest will present us with even more of these precious moments? And
is there any reason to take Rove’s prediction any more seriously than Romney
claims to have taken his wager?